Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1599 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (14 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -1.3405448818789012,
      "diversity": -0.45789473684210524
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.20653293086551636
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.006297229219143577,
    "share60": 0.0240625,
    "total15": 396,
    "total60": 1599,
    "momentum": 0.26170303248388893,
    "diversity": 0.3684210526315789,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 203,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957688888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992948148148149
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.20653293086551636
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007692307692307693,
  "shareRatio": 0.7332239716620371,
  "totalAfter": 13650,
  "shareBefore": 0.010483870967741936,
  "totalBefore": 8680,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 105,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 91
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity