Will "overdrive" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1599 launches in the last hour referenced "overdrive" (19 distinct creators, rank #18). Last 15m momentum 1.20×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": 0.18398470376234816,
      "diversity": -0.08571428571428567
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4696231327877588
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "overdrive",
    "rank60": 18,
    "share15": 0.021410579345088162,
    "share60": 0.0178125,
    "total15": 396,
    "total60": 1599,
    "momentum": 1.2019974369172302,
    "diversity": 0.6785714285714286,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 203,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957688888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998237037037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4696231327877588
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003619177382270289,
  "shareRatio": 0.5253261989011476,
  "totalAfter": 46972,
  "shareBefore": 0.0006975770822675905,
  "totalBefore": 43006,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 17,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity