Ledger / Prediction #2289 · narrative · 24H

Will "google" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "google" (3 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 3.66×.

Made2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": 1.2979362392610807,
      "diversity": -0.7758620689655172
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.523202430897622
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "google",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.06823821339950373,
    "share60": 0.018635502210991788,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1582,
    "momentum": 3.6617319258106575,
    "diversity": 0.10344827586206896,
    "launches15": 27,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 201,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997056365740741
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.523202430897622
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.227

Log loss0.648

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0032450203881215175,
  "shareRatio": 1.2362197259998793,
  "totalAfter": 46841,
  "shareBefore": 0.002621992250040606,
  "totalBefore": 43097,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 152,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 113
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "google" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.26% → 0.32% (+24%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "google" (24H). momentum contributed +1.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf4b4b7e2d9c21ae43c4e7ab13fdeab56b6f1822195e1a3c5cf491c225fe29e55

Previous hashc7a083ae31cc0d9a29098c8489fdf7b21f5d4056edd7166ba08023131874d319