Ledger / Prediction #2292 · narrative · 24H
Will "goon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1582 launches in the last hour referenced "goon" (4 distinct creators, rank #192). Last 15m momentum 3.21×.
Made2026-10-12 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.167469802472178,
"diversity": 0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.5777966453858687
},
"features": {
"term": "goon",
"rank60": 192,
"share15": 0.011166253101736972,
"share60": 0.003474415666456096,
"total15": 402,
"total60": 1582,
"momentum": 3.2138506654635686,
"diversity": 0.8,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 201,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9929352777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997056365740741
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5777966453858687
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.178
Log loss0.549
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0008112550970303794,
"shareRatio": 1.0899311268979515,
"totalAfter": 46841,
"shareBefore": 0.0007425110796575168,
"totalBefore": 43097,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 38,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 32
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "goon" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.07% → 0.08% (+9%). PARTIAL.
— "goon" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
89faa560119a24f9eac799644c571124c0d543745267ee69a7d6f3117e2d0c7fPrevious hash
b62dc2161ed47e40723f348133339156ce5bd0afee59f3bb24aea5bd078beef9