Ledger / Prediction #2300 · narrative · 1H
Will "megan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1839 launches in the last hour referenced "megan" (4 distinct creators, rank #192). Last 15m momentum 2.78×.
Made2026-10-12 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 11:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.0229028931775925,
"diversity": 0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.686305416397504
},
"features": {
"term": "megan",
"rank60": 192,
"share15": 0.00831353919239905,
"share60": 0.002989130434782609,
"total15": 420,
"total60": 1839,
"momentum": 2.781256748002591,
"diversity": 0.8,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 176,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9987911111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987911111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.686305416397504
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 12:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.471
Log loss1.159
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0010793308148947653,
"shareRatio": 0.4520937530646269,
"totalAfter": 1853,
"shareBefore": 0.0027129679869777536,
"totalBefore": 1843,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 2,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 5
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 69% that "megan" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.27% → 0.11% (-60%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "megan" (1H). momentum contributed +1.02 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
7bb2c5968990486ab22fef09bc0c47bd84bc702d3ebb2aed7c8230b788cc1ff3Previous hash
e7562fcc98aad0e7c3761263ace7e92a0517132f0c80c5ade197ed124ee9cac1