Will "solwaifu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

76 of 1839 launches in the last hour referenced "solwaifu" (23 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.83×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4081943141778346,
      "momentum": -0.1882540744853117,
      "diversity": -0.5368421052631579
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37242411292458333
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "solwaifu",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0344418052256532,
    "share60": 0.04157608695652174,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1839,
    "momentum": 0.8284042041202861,
    "diversity": 0.3026315789473684,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 76,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 176,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9987911111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997985185185185
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37242411292458333
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002700330790521839,
  "shareRatio": 0.036098603070227685,
  "totalAfter": 14813,
  "shareBefore": 0.008360836083608362,
  "totalBefore": 9090,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 76
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity