Ledger / Prediction #2312 · token · 6H

Will $DYOR still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 27m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-12 11:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 11:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08750880819853629
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GBruy4TFWp31iLvyaqMV9LX3vCbmUvMAtJ8tE3Chpump",
    "name": "DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH",
    "symbol": "DYOR",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 27,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 68,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3135.844671925871,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 811,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.08750880819853629
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 17:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T12:54:20.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 4126.071777499913,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4161.8820949577985,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3135.844671925871,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6271.689343851742
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that $DYOR would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $4,126, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $DYOR (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash76df6b1d60d5b68e15bf6b598f10138e8eef2f92735877480e384620b45969c9

Previous hash70ceb1f709adc8f57f7f151bba8b5e07a700114a0149182a8ebeec5c8e40c06d