Ledger / Prediction #2318 · narrative · 6H

Will "hello" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 2018 launches in the last hour referenced "hello" (72 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-12 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": -3.3898237170687695,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10130411711362355
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hello",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0012106537530266344,
    "share60": 0.0359088657751362,
    "total15": 412,
    "total60": 2018,
    "momentum": 0.03371461968773483,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 72
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 216,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965897222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994316203703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10130411711362355
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 18:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.808

Log loss2.290

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010787773856296198,
  "shareRatio": 1.218617499320177,
  "totalAfter": 15017,
  "shareBefore": 0.00882697011592045,
  "totalBefore": 9403,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 162,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 83
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "hello" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.88% → 1.08% (+22%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "hello" (6H). momentum contributed -3.39 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 90% and wrong on "hello". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash08f5de7dff26da53d31bb83f8c30042ce0b7b2802dc5a071e849772298a2f426

Previous hashf856d44274f92395f883cb258bde774cf65438455bf2d0f9dce7c3052a1169c5