Ledger / Prediction #2319 · narrative · 6H

Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 2018 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (56 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.

Made2026-10-12 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -2.0766516207778416,
      "diversity": 0.25862068965517243
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21160696651580824
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "agent",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0036319612590799033,
    "share60": 0.02897473997028232,
    "total15": 412,
    "total60": 2018,
    "momentum": 0.1253492270441423,
    "diversity": 0.9655172413793104,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 56
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 216,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965897222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994316203703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21160696651580824
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 18:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.045

Log loss0.238

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006992075647599388,
  "shareRatio": 0.5719670306166511,
  "totalAfter": 15017,
  "shareBefore": 0.012230139317239179,
  "totalBefore": 9403,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 105,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 115
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 21% that "agent" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.22% → 0.70% (-43%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "agent" (6H). momentum contributed -2.08 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashadd03892ba07a767500da5f6e0c779f8cac3aab09dc820ad84526cb843d0f908

Previous hash08f5de7dff26da53d31bb83f8c30042ce0b7b2802dc5a071e849772298a2f426