Ledger / Prediction #232 · narrative · 1H

Will "doomed" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2579 launches in the last hour referenced "doomed" (4 distinct creators, rank #161). Last 15m momentum 1.01×.

Made2026-10-09 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.005830920310793144,
      "diversity": -0.3666666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3606214843955835
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doomed",
    "rank60": 161,
    "share15": 0.003703703703703704,
    "share60": 0.003682170542635659,
    "total15": 674,
    "total60": 2579,
    "momentum": 1.0058479532163742,
    "diversity": 0.4444444444444444,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 362,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943619444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943619444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3606214843955835
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 17:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.130

Log loss0.447

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002042483660130719,
  "shareRatio": 0.6141711976961596,
  "totalAfter": 2448,
  "shareBefore": 0.0034655371582595304,
  "totalBefore": 2597,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "doomed" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.35% → 0.20% (-41%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "doomed" (1H). diversity contributed -0.37 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2f0def38c416debc26c0c3b4cfdcbca9b71c40b46a966de16581ad731ff4e095

Previous hash54273486f827c8bb43c02d82150c4bae8218997f2241222ba8603604d4db920e