Will "inherits" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
51 of 2018 launches in the last hour referenced "inherits" (51 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.34835815804353376,
"momentum": -3.047818962877831,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.18246573677200778
},
"features": {
"term": "inherits",
"rank60": 16,
"share15": 0.0012106537530266344,
"share60": 0.025507677067855374,
"total15": 412,
"total60": 2018,
"momentum": 0.04746232868661699,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 51,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 51
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 216,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965897222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998579050925926
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.18246573677200778
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.000043351974682446785,
"shareRatio": 0.04608572772393387,
"totalAfter": 46134,
"shareBefore": 0.00116443673227088,
"totalBefore": 43798,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 2,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 51
}Predicted 18% that "inherits" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.00% (-96%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "inherits" (24H). momentum contributed -3.05 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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