GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2323 · narrative · 24H

Will "inherits" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 2018 launches in the last hour referenced "inherits" (51 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-12 12:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 12:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 11:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": -3.047818962877831,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18246573677200778
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inherits",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.0012106537530266344,
    "share60": 0.025507677067855374,
    "total15": 412,
    "total60": 2018,
    "momentum": 0.04746232868661699,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 51
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 216,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965897222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998579050925926
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18246573677200778
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 12:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.033
Log loss0.202
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.000043351974682446785,
  "shareRatio": 0.04608572772393387,
  "totalAfter": 46134,
  "shareBefore": 0.00116443673227088,
  "totalBefore": 43798,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 18% that "inherits" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.00% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inherits" (24H). momentum contributed -3.05 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha7194c1019ed9206acbf27cc18829f6e6e9aac8cfd7bc32e88e30a8a9fec6d4e
Previous hashcf93aac0a43f5c33eb80a40a008511ed0c8ebd8aa70d7aa9431ebed518d4cdeb