Ledger / Prediction #2326 · token · 6H

Will $ubot still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 23m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "team".

Made2026-10-12 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14874997896424488
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "4mRRVJjwGPbJ1o9MVzNon18LQosDDE1gcSkA9zW6pump",
    "name": "FAMILIARS DEV TEAM HELLO",
    "symbol": "ubot",
    "hotTerms": [
      "team",
      "hello",
      "ubot",
      "bot",
      "agent",
      "inherits",
      "style"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 23,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 54,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3105.808766315083,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 708,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.14874997896424488
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 18:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.022

Log loss0.161

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T14:38:46.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3043.336440091053,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3120.270652305375,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3105.808766315083,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6211.617532630166
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that $ubot would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,043, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $ubot (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7a6f6fcbcd29b81c68ae573c9c564b81c76eea3b0dd54b44babe2cd1cb0c0fbe

Previous hash866f7536f83ae09c093a36178dce8c849e629228c628dfe780c203b7049a27fb