Ledger / Prediction #2329 · narrative · 1H
Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 47% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
75 of 1847 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (50 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.87×.
Made2026-10-12 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4062075301653315,
"momentum": -0.1385512396161892,
"diversity": -0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.4669622794805086
},
"features": {
"term": "cat",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.03556910569105691,
"share60": 0.04085497835497835,
"total15": 491,
"total60": 1847,
"momentum": 0.8706186399612341,
"diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
"launches15": 17,
"launches60": 75,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 50
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 216,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.99406,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.99406
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4669622794805086
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.284
Log loss0.761
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.05869175627240143,
"shareRatio": 1.4461049341158956,
"totalAfter": 2232,
"shareBefore": 0.040474905558553695,
"totalBefore": 1853,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 131,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 75
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 47% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.05% → 5.87% (+45%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed -0.14 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
4c708db64ae425600b9059a9e9891681ad25b3b40100d32476f41de686ed2010Previous hash
feab9ba2f1ff2cb17ad0f68f338b4f27c4f332f0372cf8c76cbf90d7c60b0bbb