Will "buddy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

63 of 1847 launches in the last hour referenced "buddy" (26 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.44×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3800545220936148,
      "momentum": -0.81275634964706,
      "diversity": -0.40476190476190477
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2918895488514039
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "buddy",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.01524390243902439,
    "share60": 0.034361471861471864,
    "total15": 491,
    "total60": 1847,
    "momentum": 0.4436335701939696,
    "diversity": 0.4126984126984127,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 63,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 216,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99406,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99901
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2918895488514039
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016772029415559283,
  "shareRatio": 0.2618126743058621,
  "totalAfter": 15502,
  "shareBefore": 0.006478149100257069,
  "totalBefore": 9725,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 26,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity