Ledger / Prediction #2342 · token · 6H

Will $Memecoiner still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 12m ago. X link. Rides hot term "read". Creator launched 48 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 12:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 18:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 12:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "69vNnsoK9Uzc658h7eYj8RYEp1r8W4GVeqgPvJNTpump",
    "name": "READ TWEET THIS IS ACTUALLY GIGA",
    "symbol": "Memecoiner",
    "hotTerms": [
      "read",
      "tweet",
      "actually",
      "giga",
      "memecoiner"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 12,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 35,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3099.6671732906475,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 48
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 577,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 18:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T12:17:38.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3099.6671732906475,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3099.687837669586,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3099.6671732906475,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6199.334346581295
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $Memecoiner would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,100, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Memecoiner (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7ec089b8bb0e077e59228ae344e730fd0f1d510fad9551c32f6f6a2f1edfda6c

Previous hash04aebea440af12c9d4fa604dc935e3d7b30cb992a66fbfea8301449d9aa63076