Ledger / Prediction #235 · narrative · 6H

Will "instead" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 76% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

87 of 2579 launches in the last hour referenced "instead" (87 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.82×.

Made2026-10-09 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42847053093307247,
      "momentum": 1.3408319870431333,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7592389793311363
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "instead",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.12962962962962962,
    "share60": 0.03391472868217054,
    "total15": 674,
    "total60": 2579,
    "momentum": 3.8222222222222224,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 87,
    "launches60": 87,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 87
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 362,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943619444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990603240740741
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7592389793311363
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.576

Log loss1.424

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00032533021016331576,
  "shareRatio": 0.044640987618440556,
  "totalAfter": 15369,
  "shareBefore": 0.007975909497843249,
  "totalBefore": 12287,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 98
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 76% that "instead" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.80% → 0.03% (-96%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "instead" (6H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 76% and wrong on "instead". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha9c9297ff0fcffa04d719f1af42689264ba028a18b49f7ebcbd1d48342cf3a31

Previous hash744d40dde9ddee6b7c442afbbaac08f949f7702684878fde8231be29a290432f