Will "activity" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1918 launches in the last hour referenced "activity" (7 distinct creators, rank #142). Last 15m momentum 1.64×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.49663364929755904,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.53084882789691
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "activity",
    "rank60": 142,
    "share15": 0.006422018348623854,
    "share60": 0.0039082855653986455,
    "total15": 544,
    "total60": 1918,
    "momentum": 1.6431804281345566,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 240,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996461111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999852546296296
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.53084882789691
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009794319294809011,
  "shareRatio": 1.6463526913053799,
  "totalAfter": 45945,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005901713766882306,
  "totalBefore": 44055,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity