Ledger / Prediction #2357 · token · 1H

Will $DOT still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08750880819853629
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "VW7GvFHSyt6iv8qNdERqJbc3ZLSLUzkSZrWoMUYpump",
    "name": "dotcom",
    "symbol": "DOT",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 55,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3104.217656467701,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 680,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.08750880819853629
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T12:42:32.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3117.2449277315964,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3310.291847787261,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3104.217656467701,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6208.435312935402
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that $DOT would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,117, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $DOT (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd3716596be38f089c4938c16aba16ba3563030b0d50e9912d278120fe9c5f0b0

Previous hash9ebdc856c3f1189a1e39981c9f0d97bd78fe738aabb9f1bc13af99fed4c8db3f