Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

131 of 2226 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (82 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.50×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48986391161505766,
      "momentum": -0.6986359704963331,
      "diversity": -0.148854961832061
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.34127286970853143
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.02936241610738255,
    "share60": 0.05904804669959587,
    "total15": 595,
    "total60": 2226,
    "momentum": 0.4972631229744558,
    "diversity": 0.6259541984732825,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 131,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 82
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9970811111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9970811111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.34127286970853143
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05188284518828452,
  "shareRatio": 0.8842045503337135,
  "totalAfter": 2390,
  "shareBefore": 0.05869175627240143,
  "totalBefore": 2232,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 124,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 131
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity