Ledger / Prediction #2379 · narrative · 1H

Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (18 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.76×.

Made2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": -0.2686061289750445,
      "diversity": -0.5
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3292290068302934
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.01812977099236641,
    "share60": 0.023716275021758052,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 0.7644442888157433,
    "diversity": 0.3333333333333333,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 290,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9948661111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9948661111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3292290068302934
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.108

Log loss0.399

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004176157934700076,
  "shareRatio": 0.18434273975941368,
  "totalAfter": 2634,
  "shareBefore": 0.02346805736636245,
  "totalBefore": 2301,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "live" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.35% → 0.42% (-82%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "live" (1H). diversity contributed -0.50 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0b2ab5e4ca6c2f2b5b68ffecc44044f0d6f5d2e348a67d387fb2cf4720c3080a

Previous hashdbd50b8a5e52a80f0537be08b4757f552437e1e209277b83e1c81249536d5c3d