Ledger / Prediction #2382 · narrative · 6H

Will "tek" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "tek" (3 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": -3.1945260603742476,
      "diversity": -0.8320754716981132
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.053619525262494326
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tek",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0009541984732824427,
    "share60": 0.02328111401218451,
    "total15": 523,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 0.04098594563744025,
    "diversity": 0.05660377358490566,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 290,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9948661111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991443518518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.053619525262494326
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.055

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001215436037678517,
  "shareRatio": 0.11838331792831344,
  "totalAfter": 16455,
  "shareBefore": 0.010478771454381211,
  "totalBefore": 11070,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 20,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 116
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "tek" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.05% → 0.12% (-88%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "tek" (6H). momentum contributed -3.19 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha42f59530b4a9670bc14faf2ab1621eb6be3d7307f6fb6992ae86dce39dbaa1d

Previous hash05c1836e7624587de3e61212cc235d8a9ce14d6dee07a0cfaa52d562bfff8fa4