Will "privacy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
47 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "privacy" (32 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.52×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3361064533913937,
"momentum": 0.42093344395359805,
"diversity": -0.08297872340425534
},
"rawProbability": 0.5092565889975416
},
"features": {
"term": "privacy",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.03148854961832061,
"share60": 0.020670147954743257,
"total15": 523,
"total60": 2297,
"momentum": 1.5233828846926474,
"diversity": 0.6808510638297872,
"launches15": 16,
"launches60": 47,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 290,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9948661111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999786087962963
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5092565889975416
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0029176904176904175,
"shareRatio": 1.4694347780529098,
"totalAfter": 45584,
"shareBefore": 0.0019819177838150803,
"totalBefore": 44906,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 133,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 89
}Predicted 51% that "privacy" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.29% (+47%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "privacy" (24H). momentum contributed +0.42 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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