Ledger / Prediction #2395 · narrative · 1H

Will "tek" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 2377 launches in the last hour referenced "tek" (4 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-12 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 15:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 14:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": -3.3803622618990867,
      "diversity": -0.8111111111111111
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tek",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.00078003120124805,
    "share60": 0.022918418839360806,
    "total15": 640,
    "total60": 2377,
    "momentum": 0.03403512287280482,
    "diversity": 0.07407407407407407,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 288,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926822222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926822222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 15:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00039385584875935406,
  "shareRatio": 0.02590840135808712,
  "totalAfter": 2539,
  "shareBefore": 0.022594142259414227,
  "totalBefore": 2390,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "tek" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.26% → 0.04% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "tek" (1H). momentum contributed -3.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc6e64fe7ae1ab82f4dc57dddce3b7ac3f00b056a00cb85f669a59ab49c089cd5

Previous hashba015bc29f3f0a0538294cf165ad9f03fbf4434a8587775933dfcfda714a1460