Will "pompoko" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

18 of 2377 launches in the last hour referenced "pompoko" (12 distinct creators, rank #46). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.19214007681930967,
      "momentum": -2.299932292314167,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07531371895609089
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pompoko",
    "rank60": 46,
    "share15": 0.00078003120124805,
    "share60": 0.007779646761984861,
    "total15": 640,
    "total60": 2377,
    "momentum": 0.1002656322469115,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 18,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 288,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926822222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926822222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07531371895609089
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.025441583315599064,
  "totalAfter": 2539,
  "shareBefore": 0.007531380753138075,
  "totalBefore": 2390,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 18
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity