Ledger / Prediction #2397 · narrative · 6H
Will "finance" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
136 of 2377 launches in the last hour referenced "finance" (3 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.46×.
Made2026-10-12 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 14:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4954825459952927,
"momentum": 0.9000108564109233,
"diversity": -0.8735294117647058
},
"rawProbability": 0.5163378799541414
},
"features": {
"term": "finance",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.14118564742589704,
"share60": 0.05740117746005046,
"total15": 640,
"total60": 2377,
"momentum": 2.4596298137639794,
"diversity": 0.022058823529411766,
"launches15": 90,
"launches60": 136,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 288,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9926822222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987803703703704
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5163378799541414
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 20:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.267
Log loss0.726
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0035110687931444893,
"shareRatio": 0.2743328051590404,
"totalAfter": 16804,
"shareBefore": 0.012864493996569469,
"totalBefore": 11660,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 59,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 150
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 52% that "finance" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.29% → 0.35% (-73%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "finance" (6H). momentum contributed +0.90 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
35fdbf23e0e33fd9c00b1aa936798701724d22c6d76e0b706eccc68c74447e0aPrevious hash
f95ba4b0bd900535ae7331e49850e72b5f0063835f4ef997672b3a50b37cbb60