Ledger / Prediction #2398 · narrative · 6H

Will "run" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2377 launches in the last hour referenced "run" (15 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.18×.

Made2026-10-12 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 14:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -1.694696984077102,
      "diversity": -0.54
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16485811274288265
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "run",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.0039001560062402497,
    "share60": 0.021236333052985702,
    "total15": 640,
    "total60": 2377,
    "momentum": 0.18365487094731314,
    "diversity": 0.3,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 288,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926822222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987803703703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16485811274288265
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.027

Log loss0.180

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005236848369435849,
  "shareRatio": 0.7267479916691462,
  "totalAfter": 16804,
  "shareBefore": 0.007204116638078902,
  "totalBefore": 11660,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 88,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 84
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "run" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.72% → 0.52% (-27%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "run" (6H). momentum contributed -1.69 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaaa2952020d6f7c76c87a5bd9fa50d4c9ed08f4fd294062b21c1c8d0fb011d6b

Previous hash35fdbf23e0e33fd9c00b1aa936798701724d22c6d76e0b706eccc68c74447e0a