Ledger / Prediction #2399 · narrative · 6H

Will "game" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 2377 launches in the last hour referenced "game" (13 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.11×.

Made2026-10-12 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 14:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": -2.165113069505216,
      "diversity": -0.575
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12125552890637664
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "game",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.00234009360374415,
    "share60": 0.02039529015979815,
    "total15": 640,
    "total60": 2377,
    "momentum": 0.11473696061244512,
    "diversity": 0.2708333333333333,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 288,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926822222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987803703703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.12125552890637664
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.015

Log loss0.129

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005296358009997619,
  "shareRatio": 0.8118183780504169,
  "totalAfter": 16804,
  "shareBefore": 0.006518010291595197,
  "totalBefore": 11660,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 89,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 76
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 12% that "game" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.65% → 0.53% (-19%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "game" (6H). momentum contributed -2.17 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash88e662b322061545be965179b69d6e4a4508d5b9ea052c3b60ac467e5d90eaae

Previous hashaaa2952020d6f7c76c87a5bd9fa50d4c9ed08f4fd294062b21c1c8d0fb011d6b