Ledger / Prediction #2400 · narrative · 6H
Will "omur" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 2377 launches in the last hour referenced "omur" (6 distinct creators, rank #197). Last 15m momentum 3.22×.
Made2026-10-12 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 14:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": 1.1678847766893838,
"diversity": 0.1285714285714285
},
"rawProbability": 0.6553971805532526
},
"features": {
"term": "omur",
"rank60": 197,
"share15": 0.01014040561622465,
"share60": 0.003153910849453322,
"total15": 640,
"total60": 2377,
"momentum": 3.2151846073842956,
"diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 288,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9926822222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987803703703704
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6553971805532526
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 20:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.119
Log loss0.423
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0006546060461794811,
"shareRatio": 1.0639809580481998,
"totalAfter": 16804,
"shareBefore": 0.0006003430531732419,
"totalBefore": 11660,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 11,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 7
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 66% that "omur" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.07% (+9%). PARTIAL.
— "omur" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
13393b56adfae1d2aa8c609ae73b6edd8d78395be8a38cb7febe397af58cc177Previous hash
88e662b322061545be965179b69d6e4a4508d5b9ea052c3b60ac467e5d90eaae