GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2400 · narrative · 6H

Will "omur" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2377 launches in the last hour referenced "omur" (6 distinct creators, rank #197). Last 15m momentum 3.22×.

Made2026-10-12 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 14:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 1.1678847766893838,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6553971805532526
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "omur",
    "rank60": 197,
    "share15": 0.01014040561622465,
    "share60": 0.003153910849453322,
    "total15": 640,
    "total60": 2377,
    "momentum": 3.2151846073842956,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 288,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926822222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987803703703704
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6553971805532526
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 20:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.119
Log loss0.423
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006546060461794811,
  "shareRatio": 1.0639809580481998,
  "totalAfter": 16804,
  "shareBefore": 0.0006003430531732419,
  "totalBefore": 11660,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 66% that "omur" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.07% (+9%). PARTIAL.

— "omur" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash13393b56adfae1d2aa8c609ae73b6edd8d78395be8a38cb7febe397af58cc177
Previous hash88e662b322061545be965179b69d6e4a4508d5b9ea052c3b60ac467e5d90eaae