Ledger / Prediction #2403 · narrative · 24H
Will "faster" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
43 of 2377 launches in the last hour referenced "faster" (8 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.
Made2026-10-12 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 14:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3227643304889193,
"momentum": -3.1549224983245265,
"diversity": -0.6767441860465117
},
"rawProbability": 0.11360338669662001
},
"features": {
"term": "faster",
"rank60": 13,
"share15": 0.00078003120124805,
"share60": 0.018292682926829267,
"total15": 640,
"total60": 2377,
"momentum": 0.04264170566822673,
"diversity": 0.18604651162790697,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 43,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 288,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9926822222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996950925925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.11360338669662001
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.013
Log loss0.121
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00011061702174730647,
"shareRatio": 0.08700698561522781,
"totalAfter": 45201,
"shareBefore": 0.0013874818305950754,
"totalBefore": 45406,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 5,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 63
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 11% that "faster" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.14% → 0.01% (-92%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "faster" (24H). momentum contributed -3.15 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
d54cd246ecd384609019c42123b01647696fe2672307f258580905b86986989bPrevious hash
419f9797e6d3e6ad5d85869eee39a425c1b90e0774bba530c95c9d0d9fe34526