Ledger / Prediction #2409 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

136 of 2629 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (69 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.48×.

Made2026-10-12 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4954825459952927,
      "momentum": 0.3927723924063585,
      "diversity": -0.2911764705882353
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5737281691331086
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.07686980609418283,
    "share60": 0.051901140684410645,
    "total15": 721,
    "total60": 2629,
    "momentum": 1.481081245624182,
    "diversity": 0.5073529411764706,
    "launches15": 55,
    "launches60": 136,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 69
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 342,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990836111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5737281691331086
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.182

Log loss0.556

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0704383664293743,
  "shareRatio": 1.3628500089174245,
  "totalAfter": 2669,
  "shareBefore": 0.051632498101746395,
  "totalBefore": 2634,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 188,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 136
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.16% → 7.04% (+36%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.50 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash130875ff220ff6f55a0021e15b000ee2a050a7326f123cc2f9ca6130903aecae

Previous hash9913e1e4f0d656bfa02046bd6b2c41339d1a696c1ead5cd0ef3fc34077b2caaa