Ledger / Prediction #2410 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
108 of 2629 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (67 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.09×.
Made2026-10-12 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4609039972035179,
"momentum": 0.08720390263416158,
"diversity": -0.15555555555555559
},
"rawProbability": 0.5231215835917685
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.045013850415512466,
"share60": 0.04125475285171103,
"total15": 721,
"total60": 2629,
"momentum": 1.091119139104127,
"diversity": 0.6203703703703703,
"launches15": 32,
"launches60": 108,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 67
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 342,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990836111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990836111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5231215835917685
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.227
Log loss0.648
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.04196328212813788,
"shareRatio": 1.023274478330658,
"totalAfter": 2669,
"shareBefore": 0.04100227790432802,
"totalBefore": 2634,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 112,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 108
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 52% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.10% → 4.20% (+2%). PARTIAL.
— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
3cf7e42b44fdb7093e6eee80e4b3f826c9337ec867ddfbdfd207635cfaad1d76Previous hash
130875ff220ff6f55a0021e15b000ee2a050a7326f123cc2f9ca6130903aecae