Ledger / Prediction #2411 · narrative · 1H

Will "chat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

83 of 2629 launches in the last hour referenced "chat" (43 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.60×.

Made2026-10-12 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42141040430437465,
      "momentum": 1.2806656477628096,
      "diversity": -0.2783132530120482
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7546860098050244
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.11426592797783934,
    "share60": 0.0317490494296578,
    "total15": 721,
    "total60": 2629,
    "momentum": 3.599034617745119,
    "diversity": 0.5180722891566265,
    "launches15": 82,
    "launches60": 83,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 43
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 342,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990836111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7546860098050244
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.570

Log loss1.405

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003746721618583739,
  "shareRatio": 0.017728587768283656,
  "totalAfter": 2669,
  "shareBefore": 0.03151100987091875,
  "totalBefore": 2634,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 83
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 75% that "chat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.15% → 0.04% (-99%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "chat" (1H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "chat". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe6b0863eb4f1a123cdf59653a3cef2eba1f67488e622141cef3f0ff9b1bbc03e

Previous hash3cf7e42b44fdb7093e6eee80e4b3f826c9337ec867ddfbdfd207635cfaad1d76