Ledger / Prediction #2412 · narrative · 1H

Will "sir" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2629 launches in the last hour referenced "sir" (7 distinct creators, rank #179). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

Made2026-10-12 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.540499357777232,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16520503383864898
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sir",
    "rank60": 179,
    "share15": 0.0006925207756232687,
    "share60": 0.003231939163498099,
    "total15": 721,
    "total60": 2629,
    "momentum": 0.21427407528108197,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 342,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990836111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16520503383864898
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.027

Log loss0.181

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0018733608092918695,
  "shareRatio": 0.6385767790262172,
  "totalAfter": 2669,
  "shareBefore": 0.0030372057706909645,
  "totalBefore": 2634,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "sir" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.19% (-38%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "sir" (1H). momentum contributed -1.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9bf113718f954472aaed4729da4a5505c86cc9fe4b35271b1ca8e1505c23762d

Previous hashe6b0863eb4f1a123cdf59653a3cef2eba1f67488e622141cef3f0ff9b1bbc03e