Will "ploy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 2629 launches in the last hour referenced "ploy" (18 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 2.52×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": 0.9226956271665674,
      "diversity": -0.44999999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5666932055702322
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ploy",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.046398891966759004,
    "share60": 0.01844106463878327,
    "total15": 721,
    "total60": 2629,
    "momentum": 2.5160636262386844,
    "diversity": 0.375,
    "launches15": 33,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 342,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998472685185186
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5666932055702322
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0026625643453050117,
  "shareRatio": 0.3516756372986405,
  "totalAfter": 16901,
  "shareBefore": 0.007614003144914342,
  "totalBefore": 12083,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 92
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity