Will "catch" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2629 launches in the last hour referenced "catch" (8 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -2.07458184370749,
      "diversity": -0.6767441860465117
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18030523777761398
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "catch",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.002077562326869806,
    "share60": 0.016539923954372624,
    "total15": 721,
    "total60": 2629,
    "momentum": 0.12560894068201356,
    "diversity": 0.18604651162790697,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 342,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999618171296296
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18030523777761398
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005339384635920711,
  "shareRatio": 0.39247037390626505,
  "totalAfter": 44949,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013778623449904861,
  "totalBefore": 45723,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity