Ledger / Prediction #242 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

122 of 2501 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (103 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.71×.

Made2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4791874698448734,
      "momentum": -0.340787657117419,
      "diversity": 0.1131147540983607
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4878810157600503
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.03482142857142857,
    "share60": 0.04896083133493206,
    "total15": 559,
    "total60": 2501,
    "momentum": 0.7112099125364432,
    "diversity": 0.8442622950819673,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 122,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 103
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 410,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996527777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996527777777777
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4878810157600503
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 18:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.238

Log loss0.669

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.028478437754271765,
  "shareRatio": 0.5869782805354756,
  "totalAfter": 2458,
  "shareBefore": 0.048663741523733546,
  "totalBefore": 2507,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 70,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 122
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.87% → 2.85% (-41%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). momentum contributed -0.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash49a77759f940c7ce72a845eb662d3f9eaae186b0d24eb236078f4d9d43f8610b

Previous hashbe3a870de8fbcb6a03494923f7524a80e6fa400ea737fa0e08a80af6ddefab6c