GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2420 · narrative · 24H

Will "left" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2629 launches in the last hour referenced "left" (5 distinct creators, rank #325). Last 15m momentum 1.66×.

Made2026-10-12 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 15:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.5042566259147138,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5255099093211563
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "left",
    "rank60": 325,
    "share15": 0.0034626038781163434,
    "share60": 0.002091254752851711,
    "total15": 721,
    "total60": 2629,
    "momentum": 1.6557542180810878,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 342,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999618171296296
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5255099093211563
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 15:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.276
Log loss0.745
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012681038510311687,
  "shareRatio": 0.9667785142352845,
  "totalAfter": 44949,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013122498523718915,
  "totalBefore": 45723,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 57,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 60
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "left" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.13% (-3%). PARTIAL.

— "left" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc06aa14a3df28dce4883f503034b8a038dfc6e235e2e58cfbc9bc991ee0360eb
Previous hashf294658b2137d7343c84f8b3ac02b1e063aeff0d65c5821a33d0a52e9e10ba9f