Will "ploy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

93 of 2520 launches in the last hour referenced "ploy" (33 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43847423710787337,
      "momentum": -0.8578329084350413,
      "diversity": -0.4741935483870967
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23262422617007608
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ploy",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.015728476821192054,
    "share60": 0.03708845696152321,
    "total15": 603,
    "total60": 2520,
    "momentum": 0.4240801076601622,
    "diversity": 0.3548387096774194,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 93,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 340,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965713888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23262422617007608
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.004861448711716091,
  "totalAfter": 2793,
  "shareBefore": 0.03662859393461993,
  "totalBefore": 2539,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 93
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity