Ledger / Prediction #2428 · narrative · 1H
Will "farming" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 2520 launches in the last hour referenced "farming" (5 distinct creators, rank #332). Last 15m momentum 1.90×.
Made2026-10-12 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.6403793688888347,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6548392124266195
},
"features": {
"term": "farming",
"rank60": 332,
"share15": 0.0041390728476821195,
"share60": 0.00218167393891313,
"total15": 603,
"total60": 2520,
"momentum": 1.8972004816375678,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 340,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965713888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965713888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6548392124266195
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 16:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.429
Log loss1.064
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00035803795202291446,
"shareRatio": 0.24793388429752067,
"totalAfter": 2793,
"shareBefore": 0.0019692792437967705,
"totalBefore": 2539,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 5
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 65% that "farming" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.04% (-82%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "farming" (1H). momentum contributed +0.64 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5325f78ab21b8ef97096e4d6395e7ff82edda5951134c198c4a1b5189038f6ddPrevious hash
de14b0909ce9e4fb2927a412c67ff7b804d95937f9fffd7dd1dc345314997e2c