Ledger / Prediction #2432 · narrative · 6H
Will "giraffe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
9 of 2520 launches in the last hour referenced "giraffe" (7 distinct creators, rank #151). Last 15m momentum 3.73×.
Made2026-10-12 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.08816799973531786,
"momentum": 1.3176110941428805,
"diversity": 0.03333333333333335
},
"rawProbability": 0.6698216896191197
},
"features": {
"term": "giraffe",
"rank60": 151,
"share15": 0.014072847682119206,
"share60": 0.003768345894486315,
"total15": 603,
"total60": 2520,
"momentum": 3.7344893691181595,
"diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
"launches15": 8,
"launches60": 9,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 340,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965713888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994285648148148
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6698216896191197
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.449
Log loss1.108
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00029403116730373417,
"shareRatio": 0.3507227628100568,
"totalAfter": 17005,
"shareBefore": 0.0008821170809943865,
"totalBefore": 12470,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 5,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 11
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 67% that "giraffe" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.09% → 0.03% (-67%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "giraffe" (6H). momentum contributed +1.32 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e7c47a0dc01294386f188d8cd4dd96014683afbb6d1cd16f49e7c37449a3d703Previous hash
ee00de05dbcd08216fd50a50be8abd3bab9bb4c094d668c28fc0a233c26dc786