Ledger / Prediction #2434 · narrative · 24H

Will "robot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 2520 launches in the last hour referenced "robot" (31 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 4.17×.

Made2026-10-12 15:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 15:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": 1.428836729253105,
      "diversity": -0.26949152542372873
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6141475264339001
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "robot",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.09850993377483444,
    "share60": 0.02360174533915113,
    "total15": 603,
    "total60": 2520,
    "momentum": 4.173841059602649,
    "diversity": 0.5254237288135594,
    "launches15": 59,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 340,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998571412037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6141475264339001
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 15:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.149

Log loss0.488

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0027608932825685215,
  "shareRatio": 1.101969767330234,
  "totalAfter": 44913,
  "shareBefore": 0.002504628117173037,
  "totalBefore": 45915,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 124,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 115
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "robot" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.25% → 0.28% (+10%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "robot" (24H). momentum contributed +1.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbaee31ed8b59780b4cab7bb8fb2ec9b77298027b0f5cf9c38944ea023a11db01

Previous hash6c33055649ca86111709cc6a868bae5f8d3d4c4cd3a2bbb853c18658c2e07bc7