Ledger / Prediction #2442 · narrative · 1H
Will "hire" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
110 of 2641 launches in the last hour referenced "hire" (29 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.56×.
Made2026-10-12 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4636563680037474,
"momentum": 0.44424685630347793,
"diversity": -0.5836363636363636
},
"rawProbability": 0.5060664174710442
},
"features": {
"term": "hire",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.06521739130434782,
"share60": 0.04182437547312642,
"total15": 804,
"total60": 2641,
"momentum": 1.5593153649419635,
"diversity": 0.2636363636363636,
"launches15": 52,
"launches60": 110,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 29
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 318,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9937863888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9937863888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5060664174710442
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.256
Log loss0.705
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.011011011011011011,
"shareRatio": 0.26999900386079406,
"totalAfter": 2997,
"shareBefore": 0.04121393780442113,
"totalBefore": 2669,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 33,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 110
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 51% that "hire" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.12% → 1.10% (-73%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "hire" (1H). volume contributed +0.46 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
f2484786cf68e600dcb5c650e5da3a660f60b17d922ba176aa04ce7d78f7ca9dPrevious hash
ac686a39a5c659dee075d0fde4b49e225e5b9a5a51be95f70d3985a7e6239646