GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2442 · narrative · 1H

Will "hire" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

110 of 2641 launches in the last hour referenced "hire" (29 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.56×.

Made2026-10-12 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4636563680037474,
      "momentum": 0.44424685630347793,
      "diversity": -0.5836363636363636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5060664174710442
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hire",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.06521739130434782,
    "share60": 0.04182437547312642,
    "total15": 804,
    "total60": 2641,
    "momentum": 1.5593153649419635,
    "diversity": 0.2636363636363636,
    "launches15": 52,
    "launches60": 110,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 318,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937863888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9937863888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5060664174710442
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.256
Log loss0.705
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.011011011011011011,
  "shareRatio": 0.26999900386079406,
  "totalAfter": 2997,
  "shareBefore": 0.04121393780442113,
  "totalBefore": 2669,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 33,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 110
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "hire" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.12% → 1.10% (-73%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "hire" (1H). volume contributed +0.46 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf2484786cf68e600dcb5c650e5da3a660f60b17d922ba176aa04ce7d78f7ca9d
Previous hashac686a39a5c659dee075d0fde4b49e225e5b9a5a51be95f70d3985a7e6239646