Ledger / Prediction #2444 · narrative · 1H

Will "culture" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2641 launches in the last hour referenced "culture" (8 distinct creators, rank #158). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

Made2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -0.5461518477243992,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3832795310856481
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "culture",
    "rank60": 158,
    "share15": 0.0018633540372670807,
    "share60": 0.0032172596517789556,
    "total15": 804,
    "total60": 2641,
    "momentum": 0.579174278407015,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 318,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937863888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9937863888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3832795310856481
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.147

Log loss0.483

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000333667000333667,
  "shareRatio": 0.14062006249780556,
  "totalAfter": 2997,
  "shareBefore": 0.0033720494567253652,
  "totalBefore": 2669,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "culture" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.34% → 0.03% (-90%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "culture" (1H). momentum contributed -0.55 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash269357cb20c1bda242bc5eb0bba5ffac82931d41f05a544f74ca67d8c8b6272f

Previous hashb3653db6d5582d47e1f347d917831a7ca3a8be990b631ba3672133641c61e05e