Ledger / Prediction #2446 · narrative · 6H

Will "hire" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

110 of 2641 launches in the last hour referenced "hire" (29 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.56×.

Made2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4636563680037474,
      "momentum": 0.44424685630347793,
      "diversity": -0.5836363636363636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4817548052141573
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hire",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.06521739130434782,
    "share60": 0.04182437547312642,
    "total15": 804,
    "total60": 2641,
    "momentum": 1.5593153649419635,
    "diversity": 0.2636363636363636,
    "launches15": 52,
    "launches60": 110,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 318,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937863888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989643981481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4817548052141573
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.232

Log loss0.657

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0038279801423530117,
  "shareRatio": 0.4138555805097158,
  "totalAfter": 16719,
  "shareBefore": 0.009283920553991324,
  "totalBefore": 13141,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 64,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 122
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "hire" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.93% → 0.38% (-59%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "hire" (6H). diversity contributed -0.58 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf53f9bf90b99e9812d2a724f69c8490743117d8b5bc193604d56ba9886e2ae06

Previous hash542c29f09a9af62c5ee1667c21d4183db5ffd5d50c6656544918fc86690f58a7