GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2447 · narrative · 6H

Will "ticket" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 74% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

92 of 2641 launches in the last hour referenced "ticket" (92 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.28×.

Made2026-10-12 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.436852599692241,
      "momentum": 1.1884492076637072,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.740335157133124
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ticket",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.11490683229813664,
    "share60": 0.0350113550340651,
    "total15": 804,
    "total60": 2641,
    "momentum": 3.2819875776397516,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 92,
    "launches60": 92,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 92
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 318,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937863888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989643981481482
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.740335157133124
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.548
Log loss1.348
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00029906094862132903,
  "shareRatio": 0.046235575569940894,
  "totalAfter": 16719,
  "shareBefore": 0.007077086979681912,
  "totalBefore": 13141,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 93
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 74% that "ticket" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.03% (-96%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "ticket" (6H). momentum contributed +1.19 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8f039f530856641ad917a01bfb8b3a83d0261b2a73079c6e6220ed33bae34895
Previous hashf53f9bf90b99e9812d2a724f69c8490743117d8b5bc193604d56ba9886e2ae06