Ledger / Prediction #2448 · narrative · 6H

Will "pls" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2641 launches in the last hour referenced "pls" (3 distinct creators, rank #268). Last 15m momentum 0.76×.

Made2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -0.2778878611297199,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33506210573238177
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pls",
    "rank60": 268,
    "share15": 0.0018633540372670807,
    "share60": 0.0024602573807721425,
    "total15": 804,
    "total60": 2641,
    "momentum": 0.7573817486860964,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 318,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937863888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989643981481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33506210573238177
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.112

Log loss0.408

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009569950355882529,
  "shareRatio": 0.960672514619883,
  "totalAfter": 16719,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009892702229662887,
  "totalBefore": 13141,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 13
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "pls" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.10% → 0.10% (-3%). PARTIAL.

— "pls" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash64b168dee858d3e383b7053981b970cc69f365ff004492d8b3cc1609563e282e

Previous hash8f039f530856641ad917a01bfb8b3a83d0261b2a73079c6e6220ed33bae34895