Ledger / Prediction #2453 · token · 1H

Will $BDUCK still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 22m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791237
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "2XvBDcb1YdjWiY4p7wN8EDuBrSGygBry2mwXFHCkpump",
    "name": "BATON DUCK",
    "symbol": "BDUCK",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 22,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 92,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3522.8377242523848,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 990,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791237
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 17:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T16:11:03.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3050.605778903793,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3550.9188120873873,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3522.8377242523848,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7045.6754485047695
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $BDUCK would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,051, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $BDUCK (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0ca745b26acb08a91c09b6dc366a70ddc40245f8c304a35f8f15b05e6ee52860

Previous hasha991a50eb8e74d14fea21ecb957544d760da50a5d7729684d0964f4cf73ebb30