Ledger / Prediction #2457 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

195 of 2791 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (97 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.76×.

Made2026-10-12 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 16:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.549534246919447,
      "momentum": -0.27130125971764146,
      "diversity": -0.3030769230769231
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4194956992903973
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.05338345864661654,
    "share60": 0.0700214899713467,
    "total15": 664,
    "total60": 2791,
    "momentum": 0.7623867853777666,
    "diversity": 0.49743589743589745,
    "launches15": 35,
    "launches60": 195,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 97
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996163888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4194956992903973
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 17:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.176

Log loss0.544

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03559547571523619,
  "shareRatio": 0.5109220854663925,
  "totalAfter": 3006,
  "shareBefore": 0.06981740064446831,
  "totalBefore": 2793,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 107,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 195
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.98% → 3.56% (-49%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). diversity contributed -0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf8b345712541716ee0b76b8702061243328253b5188b3f850f1fb8b2ad02b280

Previous hash4f7563ffb967ec6ae0cd9b30706a028f5ee5919aa37d54d13a4650cd5e1b27c8