GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2458 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

131 of 2791 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (75 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.68×.

Made2026-10-12 16:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 16:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48986391161505766,
      "momentum": 0.5165327412061675,
      "diversity": -0.21297709923664127
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.620911660280494
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.07894736842105263,
    "share60": 0.047098853868194845,
    "total15": 664,
    "total60": 2791,
    "momentum": 1.6762057234340602,
    "diversity": 0.5725190839694656,
    "launches15": 52,
    "launches60": 131,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 75
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996163888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.620911660280494
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.386
Log loss0.970
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.036926147704590816,
  "shareRatio": 0.7819013496809333,
  "totalAfter": 3006,
  "shareBefore": 0.047261009667024706,
  "totalBefore": 2793,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 111,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 132
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 62% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.73% → 3.69% (-22%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.52 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe8992ced72395f907aec9c0517f538b455e1c0a35cb97f9b71cdd422a8517074
Previous hashf8b345712541716ee0b76b8702061243328253b5188b3f850f1fb8b2ad02b280