Ledger / Prediction #2462 · narrative · 6H
Will "anime" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
92 of 2791 launches in the last hour referenced "anime" (47 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.
Made2026-10-12 16:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 22:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 16:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.436852599692241,
"momentum": -2.6870171131838063,
"diversity": -0.2869565217391304
},
"rawProbability": 0.11145298438347909
},
"features": {
"term": "anime",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.002255639097744361,
"share60": 0.03313037249283668,
"total15": 664,
"total60": 2791,
"momentum": 0.06808372282056492,
"diversity": 0.5108695652173914,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 92,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 47
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 319,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999360648148148
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.11145298438347909
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 22:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.012
Log loss0.118
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012133713523023722,
"shareRatio": 0.1759253438410366,
"totalAfter": 16483,
"shareBefore": 0.007032967032967033,
"totalBefore": 13650,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 20,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 96
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 11% that "anime" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.70% → 0.12% (-83%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "anime" (6H). momentum contributed -2.69 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
ff6cfa3ce23723b12cee8f8ab5b01a1074d482b1b3f30df6970cb33df96e3426Previous hash
3201b136780b0c5fa43c3a059c8ed706447f18e1575695e12bbdb5b898d7a195